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Goldman is not invincible
I have talked a lot about the conspiratorial tone of frustrated bears lately, and how I take it as a sign that traders are resigned to the market marching ever higher despite the depression grinding...
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Jim Chanos: China = Dubai X 1000
According to Bloomberg, the big bears are circling China. Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says China is overdoing it. “It does not make sense for China to build more empty...
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What do REITs think they’re doing at 2005 prices?
IYR is an ETF loaded with commercial and residential real estate investment trusts: Prophet.net At 4.44%, you can get almost as much yield from a 10-year Treasury note (3.8%). Why mess around with...
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Video presentation: Chanos on China’s state-sponsored bubble
Thanks to Pej for finding this: - Chanos relays a great quote from Milton Friedman: He was brought to watch the Chinese built a canal, and when he asked why they were using shovels and not bulldozers,...
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5-wave impulsive decline in SPX
Prophet.net Likely at least a bit more downside here, maybe even a trend lower all day to 1085. Adjust those stops though! This move now qualifies as complete, so we could snap up at any time.
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Bob Prechter: “Cover your shorts” (edited w/ new video)
He said that exactly 12 months ago yesterday: k - Here he is again on November 23 last year, calling for another decline in 2010 at least as bad as 2008, as well as a bullish call on the dollar: - And...
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The myth of the evil short-seller lives on
Bloomberg’s Jonathan Weil writes a good column. Here he digs into the falacy often cited by executives of failing companies and politicians that short-sellers are responsible for drops in price: Still...
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Applsauce
I don’t follow many individual stocks, but the mania in Apple Computer has held my attention. Looks like it could be running out of steam: Prophet Charts I have a short position here.
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Chanos: Chinese banks weaker than most believe.
Good interview on Bloomberg today – follow this link, since Bloomberg has disabled embedding.
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Topping pattern developing, stay tuned
We finally have a weakening trend on the daily RSI (see RSI on bottom of chart). This is a prerequisite for anyone considering taking a short position, especially with leverage. It would be typical for...
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Chart: Secular Bear Markets Since 1900
Secular Bear Markets (red) since 1900. Source: Crestmont Research I like this chart, but I would change one thing: the bear that started in 1929 could extend clear through to 1948 due to inflation and...
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Hedge funds: Just say no
Hedge funds are almost never a good investment. As a class, they underperform and overcharge. Only 20% of funds beat their benchmarks in a given year, and of those, fewer than half outperform in two of...
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Bristlecone Pine trading
Hedge funds, mutual funds and active mangers underperform and overcharge, while a simple buy-and-hold strategy regularly sustains sharp losses and lengthy secular bear markets. So what’s an investor...
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Barrons Big Money Poll shows complacency & love for equities
It amazes me that the most successful managers could be so bullish at a time like this (way overvalued, way overbought, rising Treasury yields, stalled earnings growth), but of course stocks are most...
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What goes up must come down (coffee futures boom-to-bust).
A 9-month mania has become a relentless 2-year bear market, and prices are back where they started: From Futures.Tradingcharts.com From Indexmundi.com, here’s a longer-term view. As is typical of...
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Top developing
An overbought market that has kept the vast majority of investors and traders in the bull camp for several weeks is to be viewed with suspicion. When prices also begin to lose their upward momentum,...
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RSI declining – final warning sign
This is a very expensive and overbought market which few participants believe can decline meaningfully. That alone is dangerous, but now we see signs of technical exhaustion, such as the downtrend in...
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Daylight saving is pointless
Daylight Saving Time doesn’t save energy. It just messes up the seasonal progression of diurnal rhythms, effectively giving us jetlag. The sun was rising a few minutes earlier each week, and now...
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One more datapoint on the equity bubble
The latest Flow of Funds Report (link to pdf) shows that equities comprise a greater share of US household assets than at any point besides the height of the internet bubble. Of course, elevated prices...
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On Flash Boys, why HFT is parasitic, and why it’s over.
It’s my baseline assumption when looking at markets, financial or otherwise, that when something involves no fraud or physical coercion it’s beneficial or innocuous. When you find something damaging...
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